A borderline critical day

My two cents on today's wildfire potential:

The wildland fire danger across South Dakota is elevated today due to strong winds and RHs below 30% in many areas.

But conditions aren't nearly as critical as they could be because of the recent precipitation. Every reporting weather station (ASOS and RAWS) across the state has received a wetting rain within, at most, the last 10 days. If the exact same meteorological conditions as we are seeing today occurred after 20+ days since the last wetting rain, I'd be far more concerned about the potential for large fire growth.

It's definitely windy out there (and a bit dry) but historically we just don't see big fires this soon after widespread precipitation events.

Strong winds expected on Wednesday

A strong cold front is expected to move through the state on Wednesday, October 3. This mainly-dry front will bring strong northwest winds to the area. Winds gusts from 40-50 mph will be common over western SD.

I do expect gusts from 50-60 mph over portions of southern Meade County, and central/eastern Pennington County as the wind accelerates locally around the eastern edges of the Black Hills.

Minimum RHs will be in the 30-40% range which, although not critical, are likely low enough to allow for large fire growth.

We have recently received sufficient moisture to wet the fuels across the area. However, the fine fuels are expected to dry with the warm temperatures and sunshine today. The curing percentage of the fine fuels is in the 70-90% cured range. This will lead to Grassland Fire Danger Indices ranging from High to Very High over western SD.

Stay alert out there. I don't anticipate any major fire issues (due to recent precipitation and dew) but if a wildfire does get started, it has the potential to race across the landscape. Remember too that strong winds can lead to downed powerlines and the potential for increased ignitions.