A strong cold front is expected to move through the state on Wednesday, October 3. This mainly-dry front will bring strong northwest winds to the area. Winds gusts from 40-50 mph will be common over western SD.
I do expect gusts from 50-60 mph over portions of southern Meade County, and central/eastern Pennington County as the wind accelerates locally around the eastern edges of the Black Hills.
Minimum RHs will be in the 30-40% range which, although not critical, are likely low enough to allow for large fire growth.
We have recently received sufficient moisture to wet the fuels across the area. However, the fine fuels are expected to dry with the warm temperatures and sunshine today. The curing percentage of the fine fuels is in the 70-90% cured range. This will lead to Grassland Fire Danger Indices ranging from High to Very High over western SD.
Stay alert out there. I don't anticipate any major fire issues (due to recent precipitation and dew) but if a wildfire does get started, it has the potential to race across the landscape. Remember too that strong winds can lead to downed powerlines and the potential for increased ignitions.
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