Over the past 72 hours, nearly all of SD has gotten at least some precipitation. However, much of the north half of the state saw less than 0.15". But other areas of the state, namely the Rapid City area saw well over an inch.
I hope you enjoyed it as today is virtually the last day we expect to see any precipitation across the state for some time. The WPC 7-day QPF is showing basically no precipitation and we can look out (maybe into la-la land) to 10 days with the GFS and it is saying the same thing giving up at some higher confidence in the forecast.
The CPC is showing similar things in their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Just remember that these outlooks are showing anything except the probability of above or below average temperature and precipitation, not the strength of that anomaly. Recall that 20 degrees is above average and 1 degree is above average. But it still provides us with some useful intelligence that the beginning of August is likely to be warm and dry.
We'll see what shakes out but I'm betting the fire potential will quickly be on the increase. And just in time of the Sturgis Rally.
