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Monday, December 6, 2021

Weather fire weather discussion 6 December 2021

(Climate) A hint of winter arrived in South Dakota this week, but it won’t last long. The coldest temperatures of the season were this morning, with single digit air temperatures and sub-zero windchills across most of the state. Some snowfall created some travel issues over the weekend, particularly in the north central and northeast, but there wasn’t much accumulation on the ground with hardly enough to cover the grass in most areas.

Temperatures were well above normal for the week, until this morning. The 7-day mean temperatures were nine to over 15 degrees F above average for Nov 29-Dec 5. Soil temperatures rose in the last week, with 4” depths today reading 30-33F in the north, and as warm as 39F in Minnehaha County.  With little to no snow cover, soil temperatures responded quickly to air temperature changes. (Laura Edwards)


(Weather) Forecast Highlights: 

Temperatures today will peak in the upper teens to upper 20s across the state as a Canadian high pressure system pushes into the Great Plains. Winds will be light and variable statewide. Tomorrow’s highs will range from the lower 20s across northern SD to the lower 30s over southern SD. Winds will be light and out of the northwest. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with western SD seeing 40s and 50s while eastern SD sees 30s and 40s. Winds will generally be out of the south from 5-15 mph. A cold front will then push through SD Wednesday night leading to northwesterly winds and temperatures in the 30s and 40s on Thursday. A low pressure system is expected to move across the region on Friday which could bring accumulating snow to the state. There is a bit of uncertainty to where the snow will actually fall and how much will come so keep your eyes to the forecast as we move through the week. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will generally be in the 30s. Minimum RHs will stay above critical thresholds all week. 

Potential for critical conditions: Critical conditions are not expected. (Darren Clabo)


(Fire/Fuels) Fuel temperatures should be low enough this week to significantly reduce if not prevent any new ignitions this week.  If a fire would start this week, rate of spread and fire intensity should be very low and fires should demonstrate a very low resistance to control actions.  No issues anticipated this week. (Jay Wickham)


Monday, November 29, 2021

Weekly fire weather discussion 29 Nov. 2021

 

(Climate) 

The Thanksgiving week was quiet with warm and dry conditions. In the west, temperatures were four to ten degrees above the weekly average. In the east, temperatures were near average in the northeast and east central, and up to six degrees above average elsewhere. 

Measurable precipitation was limited to the northern Black Hills, with just one-tenth of an inch or so. Some light sprinkles wetted the ground in the northeast on the evening of Nov 28. The ground remains snow-free across South Dakota as we end the month of November. (Laura Edwards)


(Weather) 

Forecast Highlights: 

A warm week is in store. High temperatures today will be in the 50s/60s statewide with NW winds from 10-20 mph. Minimum RH will range from 25-45%, driest over the southern third of the state. Winds will turn out of the south to southwest tomorrow with speeds generally from 10-20 mph but a few gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible over the northern Black Hills and the northwestern SD prairies. High temperatures and minimum RHs to will be similar to today. A couple of light rain/snow showers are possible over the Black Hills late tonight, but the rest of the state will remain dry. Highs on Wednesday will range from near 50 over eastern SD to near 70 over the western SD prairies. Winds will be out of the west statewide with gusts from 25-40 mph possible over western SD. Minimum RH will range from 20-30% West River and from 25-50% East River. Near-record temperatures are expected over West River on Thursday as highs climb into the 60s and 70s. Eastern SD will see highs from 45-60 F. Winds are expected to be light and variable while the minimum RH ranges from 18-28% over western SD and from 25-50% over eastern SD. Northerly winds are expected on Friday with high temperatures back into the 40s and 50s. Minimum RH will be above 30% statewide. Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the 30s/40s on Saturday and 20s/30s on Sunday. Light southeasterly winds are expected Saturday with breezy northwesterly winds on Sunday. A few snow showers are possible over the northern Black Hills and northern SD prairies overnight Saturday night. 

Potential for critical conditions:

I doubt we’ll see Red Flag conditions this week as the RH will likely not quite drop to critical levels. Regardless, it will be a warm and dry week with some breezy winds, strongest on Wednesday. Look fire elevated fire danger through the week. (Darren Clabo)


(Fire/Fuels) 

This week looks very similar to last week.  A majority of the state is either abnormally dry or in moderate drought.  The warm weather and lack of precipitation will impact the thousand hour fuels as we move through winter.  The long term impact won’t be known until next spring but we need to monitor these fuel moistures as we move through winter.  The warm temperatures throughout the first part of the week will keep the potential for new starts probable.  With the shortened burn window most fires should be contained during the first burn period. (Jay Wickham)


Monday, November 22, 2021

Weekly Fire Weather Discussion 22 Nov. 2021

(Climate) The last week in South Dakota was warmer than usual, ranging from near average in the northeast to six to eight degrees F above average in the southwest. Average highs are around 40-46F this time of year, and average lows are around 20-23F. 

It was also a very dry week, with only a few locations receiving any precipitation at all. These areas included areas south of Rapid City, parts of Harding, Day and Marshall counties, and the far southeastern counties. Precipitation totals for the week in these areas was .01 to .15 inches. 

Soil moisture has dried some over the last two weeks, but there are still some very wet soils in the northeast and some near Minnehaha county. 4” Soil temperatures have dropped and are currently reporting in the 30-38F range statewide.  (Laura Edwards)


(Weather) Forecast Highlights: 

Western SD will see temperatures in the 50s to near 60 today with minimum RH in the 20-30% range while eastern SD will see highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s with minimum RH from 25-45%. Winds will generally be light and out of the west, but the southern Black Hills may get a few gusts in the 10-20 mph range. Clear skies are expected. Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 50s and 60s statewide. Winds will be out of the south over East River but will be out of the west/northwest West River. Strong westerly winds are expected south of I-90, west of the Missouri River. Gusts from 25-35+ mph are possible across the prairies with some potential for gusts from 40-60 mph across the central and southern Black Hills and eastern foothills. Minimum RH will range from 8-15% over southcentral and southwestern SD with RHs from 15-35% elsewhere. A cold front moves through on Tuesday night leading to breezy northwesterly winds on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid-20s north to the mid-30s south. A few flurries or sprinkles are possible as the front passes across the prairies and an inch or two of snow can’t be ruled out over the northern Hills. Minimum RH will be well-above critical thresholds. Thursday will bring highs from the upper 20s east to the upper 40s west. South to southwest winds are expected. Friday through Sunday will bring highs in the 40s and 50s to the state. Northwest winds are likely Friday/Saturday with southerly winds on Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period and minimum RH will stay above critical levels statewide. 

Potential for critical conditions:

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday over southcentral and southwestern SD, including the central and southern Black Hills. This is looking like a big downsloping wind event for the central/southern and eastern Black Hills. Strong winds will extend into the prairies across the southwestern and southcentral SD prairies. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for those areas. (Darren Clabo)


(Fire/Fuels) Conditions in the Black Hills are at or slightly above normal for this time of year.  All vegetation is cured and available to burn.  With the cool evenings and the angle of the sun the burn window is shortened this time of year.  Winds will be the primary driver of any fire growth this week.  The forecasted wind for Tuesday will increase the potential for new starts from powerlines and any potential smoldering campfire left from a deer hunter.  The potential for large fire growth on Tuesday will be elevated if we get a new start. Additional resources may be needed to contain a fire on Tuesday. (Jay Wickham)


Monday, November 15, 2021

Weekly Fire Weather Discussion 15 Nov. 2021

(Climate) Winter weather finally arrived (for a long holiday weekend visit) in South Dakota. Snow and wind affected travel over Veteran’s Day weekend and cold temperatures came along with the wintry weather. Snowfall totals in the northeast on Nov 11-12 were highest around Webster with about five inches. Most other locations in the region reported less than two inches of snow. Some warmer areas had icy conditions as well. The northwest was dry this week. Precipitation totals were about one-tenth to one-half inch moisture in the west central. The northeast and east central regions received about one-half to one inch of moisture for the week.

The week started out very warm, and despite cold temperatures over the weekend, the 7-day temperature was above average. The west was about two to four degrees warmer than the weekly average, and the east was generally one to three degrees above average. 

On Nov 13, high winds came across the state with highest wind gusts reported at Reliance (81 mph). There were a handful of locations reporting gusts in the 70+ mph range at McLaughlin, Trail City, Midland and other areas in the northwest and south-central regions. (Laura Edwards)

 

(Weather)

Forecast Highlights:

There is a lot going on this week. Big temperature range across the state today: highs over western SD will be in the 60s/70s with 30s/40s over eastern SD. The areas with the warmest temps will see RHs drop to near 20%, the cooler areas will have much higher RHs. Winds will be light statewide. Breezy westerly winds will develop over western SD overnight with poor RH recovery. A cold front will then move through the state tomorrow morning leading to strong NW winds throughout the day across the state. Gusts from 30-50+ mph are possible, strongest over NW SD. Temperatures will drop throughout the day as the front passes. Minimum RH will range from 15-25% over western SD and from 25-50% over eastern SD. Breezy NW winds will continue Wednesday with gusts from 30-45 mph statewide. Highs will be in the 30s/40s and minimum RH will range from 25-50%. High pressure then moves across the state on Thursday with light winds and highs in the 30s and 40s. Friday will warm with highs in the 40s and 50s with some 60s possible over the far southwestern part of the state. Minimum RH will range from 30-50% with light winds statewide. Highs this weekend will range from the upper 30s to lower 50s and northwest winds are expected both days. No significant precipitation is in the forecast for this week or even next week.

 

Potential for critical conditions:

Elevated fire weather conditions are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday with western SD being the primary threatened area. Tuesday will see the highest danger with the strongest winds and lowest RHs and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for southwestern SD. (Darren Clabo)

 

(Fire/Fuels) The fuels in the Black Hills area remain relatively unchanged, the grass and timber litter categories are susceptible to ignition and fire spread. The Badger Clark Fire in CSP was wind driven with 3–5-foot flame lengths in the grass and 2-foot flame lengths in the timber litter. The 1000-hour fuels did not consume very well and were easy to mop up. With the reduced daylight (we are losing 2 to 3 minutes of sunlight per day) the burn window is significantly shorter, but as usual at this time of the year fires will spread with the wind. It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday could be days to watch with significant wind gusts and RHs in the 20s. (James Bachelor)

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

November wildfire potential outlook

The South Dakota Wildfire Potential Outlook for November 2021 has been released. Click on the image to get there!




Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Today's Red Flag Warning

I've got concerns with the fire weather conditions today and there is a Red Flag Warning in effect for much of western SD. Will we technically reach RFW criteria (RH < 15% and gusts > 25 mph) in all locations that are under the warning? Probably not. 

So why the concern? I am going to preface this post with a note about the Auburn fire. On Monday we saw the Auburn fire grow to nearly 1000 acres on the north side of Rapid City. Wind gusts peaked at 23 mph (Ellsworth AFB observations). The RH bottomed out at 11%. 

1) Dry conditions

The Auburn fire exhibited large wildfire growth near a major city in western SD. Why does location matter? Resources! The "world" was sent to the Auburn fire to assist in suppression. There were 3 SEATS, one air tanker, helicopters, engines from numerous VFDs, USFS and other federal assets, and leadership/resources by the RCFD and SDWF (obviously this is not a complete list of resources). These resources were on scene very quickly because of the proximity to town yet the fire still grew. This tells me that the fuels conditions are ripe for large fire growth. Short-range spotting with nearly a 80%+ PIG is exceptionally problematic and will resist suppression efforts. Since then, we've seen 48 additional hours of very dry conditions and very poor RH recovery during the nights. The fuels are more dry today than they were on Monday and that's kind of a scary thought. 

2) Humidity

I get it, the RH today will be higher than the past two days. But this is a pretty negligible difference. There really is no functional difference to fine fuel moisture, and its effect on fire behavior, between an RH of 11% and 15-20% (forecast for today). 

3) Wind

The wind is key. The potential for gusts from 30 - 40 mph on the prairies to the east and to the north of the Black Hills is concerning. These forecast winds are much stronger than what we saw on Monday and the functional difference between a gust of 23 mph and 33 mph is significant when it comes to fire behavior. The wind makes today a far different day than Monday was. And it makes the fire danger that much worse. I computed the Grassland Fire Danger Rating for the conditions last Monday and for the expected conditions for today. The GFDI breakpoints are:


And the values from Monday are on the top of the next figure while the expected values are on the bottom for today. 


I assumed similar temperatures for today as to Monday. I also assumed fully cured fuels on both days. What I want to emphasize is that even with the lower RH on Monday, the much higher wind gusts today result in nearly double the value for the GFDI digit (59 on Monday vs. 107 for today). Both represent "Extreme" fire danger but, while Monday's event was a low-end "Extreme" day, today's GFDI value represents a high-end "Extreme" day. 

You cannot get a fire without an ignition source, however. There won't be any lightning today so let's hope our fellow humans play nice. 



Friday, September 10, 2021

Yesterday's RFW Bust

This was originally posted to my twitter account:

A thread: So the Red Flag Warning for western SD yesterday was a bust. Why? Answer: smoke. See all of the grey stuff in the satellite image? That is incredibly thick smoke moving over central/western SD yesterday late afternoon.


Smoke limits solar heating at the surface which limits convection, or the vertical movement of air. So why did this matter? Drier air existed higher up in the atmosphere. As did stronger winds.

If you limit sunlight, you limit surface heating, thus limiting convection, thus limiting the mixing down of drier air that has higher momentum ("stronger winds").

And we can see this in last night's radiosonde from Rapid City. Our observed mixing height was roughly 1.4 km (up to 750 mb, horizontal black line) with a surface temperature of 86 F. Winds peaked at 10 kts in that layer.


If we would've reached 92 F or so, our mixing height would've reached 3.8 km (up to 580 mb, horizonal black line). Winds up there are at 30 kts. And these could have mixed to the surface as gusts ~25-35 mph.


So the smoke limited surface heating by 5-7 degrees F, which limited vertical mixing by over 2 km! Thus we didn't get the stronger winds mixing down to the surface (nor the drier air shown by lower dew points up there).

That leads me to predictability. Should we have known this? Well the HRRR smoke model (0600 MDT forecast run) showed dense smoke over the area yesterday afternoon (shown at 1600 MDT).


So yesterday early morning, we all had a good idea there would be a lot of smoke in the air. We also know that smoke blocks sunlight, in turn reducing convection. But to what extent? What if there was a break in the smoke for a few hours?

Meteorologists typically hedge their bets towards worst case scenarios. The potential existed for a RFW day BUT we knew smoke was coming. What does one do? Let folks know that critical conditions may develop and that's what was done.


Thursday, September 9, 2021

Elevated Fire Weather Conditions today, tomorrow, and Saturday.

Elevated Fire Weather Conditions for Western SD

Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of western SD today with a Fire Weather Watch in effect for tomorrow. These will be borderline critical weather events but considering the fuels conditions, it's definitely something to keep your eye on. 

Today's RH:


Today's wind speeds: 

The relative humidity (RH) will drop to critical levels today with minimums in the 10-15% range across much of SD. Winds will be borderline critical but should gust in the 15-25 mph range over much of western SD with some gusts near 30 in Harding/Butte Counties, as well as in the "pinch" area along I-90 in the vicinity of Rapid City. Winds will be out of the northwest and this wind direction can allow the winds locally accelerate around the Black Hills near Rapid City. It's a subtle thing but a very important thing to fire managers if a fire breaks out in that area. High temperatures today (not shown) will generally be in the mid-80s to mid-90s. 

Another thing to pay attention to is the very poor RH recovery expected overnight tonight. Below is the graphic from the NWS but I honestly think these values might be too high: RHs from 15-25% might be the best we get to overnight, especially on the east side of the Black Hills. 


So take a look at tomorrow as it will be another day of elevated fire danger. 

The forecast for RH tomorrow:

And the tomorrow's forecast wind gusts:

The RH will be lower tomorrow, most notably across southwestern SD where values might range from 7-15%. Winds speeds, however, are generally expected to be lighter and below critical thresholds. The wind will be blowing out of the west over far western SD and from the south over west-central and central SD. I think we could see a couple of gusts above 25 mph but they shouldn't persist over a widespread area for long. Temperatures (not shown) will be in the mid- to upper-90 across the affected region. Needless to say, fires will resist suppression efforts. 

Recall that we are still in a drought and fuels conditions remain dry. Here is the new USDM released today:

And recall ERC values are trending upwards:



Don't forget that we haven't seen any precipitation over the past 5 days which has allowed the fine fuels to completely dry back out. Here is the 5-day accumulated precipitation (since last Saturday at 0900 MDT). 


All in all, this isn't an event that will lead me to scream warnings from the rooftops but it is still concerning enough. Luckily (??) there is a lot of smoke over the region which will lead to cooler temperatures that what would otherwise be expected. And this might lead to lowered max wind gusts as the vertical mixing will be less than expected. But that is a conversation for a different day. 

Bonus graphics:
Today's Grassland Fire Danger Index:


And tomorrow's Grassland Fire Danger Index:


With regards to Saturday, I won't post graphics as things will likely change a bit but I do expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions over southwestern SD once again. Winds will be out of the west to northwest, gusting to 30 mph. The minimum RH will likely drop to 12-20% over much of western SD, driest across Fall River and Custer Counties. Look for high temperatures to be in the 80s and 90s. 

Sunday should bring some relief as light southeasterly winds spread across the state bringing higher dew points and lowering the fire danger. 

Monday, July 26, 2021

Fire Weather Today Through Wednesday

Heat. It really comes down to that one word. Temperatures are going to be excessively hot over the next 72 hours which will push our fire danger up to correspondingly high levels as well. 

Today's maximum temperature, minimum RH, and wind speed/direction are below. Wind speeds will be on the light side over western SD where the driest conditions exist today. This will prevent us from reaching Red Flag Criteria. Southcentral SD has the highest winds speeds but higher dew points as well leading to higher minimum RH values. The other thing missing from this forecast is the thunderstorm activity over central/northern/eastern SD today. There are some wetting rains mixed in but there has been a LOT of lightning. I fully expect new starts from this activity. Additionally, a few storms are likely over the higher elevations of the Black Hills today and I don't expect much rain to come from those storms. 





Let's examine tomorrow's maximum temperature, minimum RH, and wind speed/direction (below). A very similar situation is in store but although thunderstorms are not expected. Once again, light(ish) winds will prevent the issuance of Red Flag Warnings. 




Now for Wednesday's maximum temperature, minimum RH, and wind speed/direction (below). A cold front will move through the state later on Wednesday, hence the shift in winds you see below. Typically wind speeds increase along the front so it wouldn't surprise me to see some local critical fire weather conditions. This would most likely be across northern/northwestern SD where winds speeds will be highest during peak heating.




Regardless of wind, the extreme heat will definitely increase the evaporative demand thus reducing fuel moisture. The Hot-Dry-Windy Index is a good measure for this. The charts below are the probability of exceeding the 90th HDW percentile. At least a few portions of SD will have a good shot at reaching that percentile each of the next 3 days. 




Once again, the lack of wind is really helping to stabilize a situation that could be exceptionally bad for wildfires. Regardless, conditions still look pretty nasty. And for a bonus image, regional ERCs are shown below. Most stations in SD are reporting higher than average ERCs with northcentral SD seeing record high ERCs. The fuels will burn if ignited. 



Wednesday, July 7, 2021

We remain dry but rains have helped

We've recently seen a bit of precipitation across the state, generally ranging from 0.5 - 1.5" over the past 7 days. This has obviously helped the cause as we have been so incredibly dry over the past few months, especially over eastern and central SD. 

But if we look at the 30-day percent of average precipitation, you can see that the conditions remains very dry relative to historical norms. 
We have also been seeing some hot temperatures over the past month which further dries the soils and the fuels on the landscape. Temperatures over the past 30 days have been from 3-7 degrees above average--pretty incredible over the period of a month. 
The vegetation is really becoming drought-stressed due to the combination of heat and little precipitation. The VegDRI product shows this. Top chart is from a month ago, bottom chart is from this week. The situation is getting worse quickly. 

Ok, so things look pretty bad. Has the recent rain helped at all? In short, yes. The rain has at least dampened the fuels so that they are not as receptive to ignitions or to carrying fire. This is especially true for the 1- to 10-hr fuels (needles and grass up to finger-sized sticks). The recent trends in Energy Release Components (ERCs) have demonstrated this. I've shown Baker Park RAWS and Red Canyon RAWS as examples. Whereas they were near or at record highs a few weeks ago, the ERCs are now trending lower than average. But remember, these stations are in the Black Hills which HAVE been getting decent rains--the prairies haven't been getting those same rains. 

So, at least in the Black Hills, conditions are in a holding pattern. We've gotten enough rain to limited the fire threat in the near term. But the prairies are made almost exclusively of fine fuels or those 1-hr fuels. These fuels only take a day or two to fully dry and be conducive to carrying fire. In short, they respond more to the day-to-day weather conditions. If we get a hot/dry/windy day, they will be ready to burn. 

What scares me is the forecast going out towards the latter half of July. There are some strong hints that more hot weather and above average temperatures are on the way. Here are the CPC forecasts from the 8-14 day timeframe and the 3-4 week timeframe. 
That's a tough outlook for the latter half of the month. There is *high* confidence of these warm and dry conditions as well. 

I'm no plant phenology expert, but from my understanding the herbaceous fuels on the landscape really can't pick up and use the moisture that we've gotten over the past week. They've already crossed the threshold: they are seeded out and curing for the season. So the precipitation really won't help them out too much. Add some heat and additional dry weather and it creates a situation where the fire potential will likely increase going into August. 

The big fire out by Pickstown over the 4th of July weekend goes to show that the fuels in the Missouri River breaks will readily carry fire. The eastern red cedar had no problem torching out. Remember that big fires are not limited to the Black Hills here in SD--we have a lot of fuel on the landscape and this might be the year where it burns. 















Friday, May 28, 2021

Still in drought? But is has rained!

As I look out my office window this morning, I can finally start to see the impacts of the recent precipitation in the green grass coming up through last year's dead crop on the hills south of campus. Green up is here and the precipitation over the past week has really given things a boost. 

I've been fielding quite a few questions over the past few days with respect to the moisture and the upcoming summer fire season. Will the moisture help diminish the fire activity this summer? What has the precipitation done to the drought? Will it be a dry summer? A hot summer? So here we go, a little blog to help answer some of these questions. 

Yes, western SD has gotten a decent amount of precipitation over the past 2 weeks (below top). Note also how central and eastern SD have missed out on a lot of that precipitation. And if we look at it from the standpoint of percent of average, you can see that western SD has been anomalously wet while eastern SD is anomalously dry. (below bottom). 



But let's stretch it back 60 days. Similar graphs as above but now for the last two months. 

A different picture starts to emerge. April was exceptionally dry statewide (and April is generally a wet month for the state). Much of western SD has gotten below average precipitation during the period, one reason you may still see lingering drought issues. 

Let's stretch it back to 120 days. Again, similar graphs as above. 

The dryness across the state really starts to emerge. The Black Hills has been one area of the state that actually has seen some decent moisture but the good precipitation there has been limited to the central and southern Black Hills--this is a result of more southerly storm tracks for the major precipitation systems this winter. Look at southeastern WY and CO east of the Rockies: it's been super wet down there. 

So where do we sit today with respect to drought? The most recent US Drought Monitor is below.
We remain in drought across much of the state. The good winter precipitation over much of the Black Hills has lifted those areas out of Abnormally Dry conditions and parts of SD in the Watertown area have been fairing well also. But look at the rest of the state: it remains pretty darn dry. And this is critically important as we are dead in the middle of the wettest time of year for the state! The precipitation we get now "carries" us through the rest of the year. So how do things look in the near future?

First, let's take a look at the short term. Below is the 7-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).
Alright, SD does have some green in it. That's good, right? Well... not really. We should be getting on the order of 0.75 - 1.0" of precipitation per week this time of year, depending on location in the state. Eastern SD may see that but western SD looks like we'll have a relatively dry week. So what's the two-week forecast look like? The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has a forecast for that: top is temperature probabilities and bottom is precipitation probabilities. 



Note how conditions across the state are favoring warmer than average conditions while western SD also is likely to see drier than average conditions. Warm temperatures will increase evaporative demand which will pull the moisture out of the soil and transpiration will increase pulling water out of the plants. And if western SD is drier than average, we will start to see conditions deteriorate further during the month of June (again, another generally wet month for the state). 

Is there any relief in sight? Not really, if you trust the CPC. The 3-month outlook is below (June/July/August). Temperature outlook on top, precipitation on bottom. 
But can we trust the CPC? Well they base some of their forecasts from information obtained from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) projections. I'll leave it to you to look at it but, by and large, these projections are largely showing dry/hot conditions for SD. There is much more confidence in the temperature forecast than the precipitation forecast but still, not a rosy outlook. 

Think back to our last "bad" fire season across SD: 2012. What did it look like precipitation-wise then? Here is the monthly precipitation for the year from both 2012 and for 2021 (from Rapid City). 
Rapid City is actually drier than 2012 at this point in the year. The reason 2012 was so bad fire-wise was that July - August was ridiculously dry and hot (spring moisture was half-way decent that year).

To summarize, I still have major concerns regarding the summer fire potential (and the impacts to statewide agriculture). We've been dry, many areas of the state are current dry, and we are expected a hot/dry summer. I hope I'm wrong but the current data suggests we are in for a rough summer.