Weekly fire weather discussion 29 Nov. 2021

 

(Climate) 

The Thanksgiving week was quiet with warm and dry conditions. In the west, temperatures were four to ten degrees above the weekly average. In the east, temperatures were near average in the northeast and east central, and up to six degrees above average elsewhere. 

Measurable precipitation was limited to the northern Black Hills, with just one-tenth of an inch or so. Some light sprinkles wetted the ground in the northeast on the evening of Nov 28. The ground remains snow-free across South Dakota as we end the month of November. (Laura Edwards)

(Weather) 

Forecast Highlights: 

A warm week is in store. High temperatures today will be in the 50s/60s statewide with NW winds from 10-20 mph. Minimum RH will range from 25-45%, driest over the southern third of the state. Winds will turn out of the south to southwest tomorrow with speeds generally from 10-20 mph but a few gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible over the northern Black Hills and the northwestern SD prairies. High temperatures and minimum RHs to will be similar to today. A couple of light rain/snow showers are possible over the Black Hills late tonight, but the rest of the state will remain dry. Highs on Wednesday will range from near 50 over eastern SD to near 70 over the western SD prairies. Winds will be out of the west statewide with gusts from 25-40 mph possible over western SD. Minimum RH will range from 20-30% West River and from 25-50% East River. Near-record temperatures are expected over West River on Thursday as highs climb into the 60s and 70s. Eastern SD will see highs from 45-60 F. Winds are expected to be light and variable while the minimum RH ranges from 18-28% over western SD and from 25-50% over eastern SD. Northerly winds are expected on Friday with high temperatures back into the 40s and 50s. Minimum RH will be above 30% statewide. Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the 30s/40s on Saturday and 20s/30s on Sunday. Light southeasterly winds are expected Saturday with breezy northwesterly winds on Sunday. A few snow showers are possible over the northern Black Hills and northern SD prairies overnight Saturday night. 

Potential for critical conditions:

I doubt we’ll see Red Flag conditions this week as the RH will likely not quite drop to critical levels. Regardless, it will be a warm and dry week with some breezy winds, strongest on Wednesday. Look fire elevated fire danger through the week. (Darren Clabo)

(Fire/Fuels) 

This week looks very similar to last week.  A majority of the state is either abnormally dry or in moderate drought.  The warm weather and lack of precipitation will impact the thousand hour fuels as we move through winter.  The long term impact won’t be known until next spring but we need to monitor these fuel moistures as we move through winter.  The warm temperatures throughout the first part of the week will keep the potential for new starts probable.  With the shortened burn window most fires should be contained during the first burn period. (Jay Wickham)

Weekly Fire Weather Discussion 22 Nov. 2021

(Climate) The last week in South Dakota was warmer than usual, ranging from near average in the northeast to six to eight degrees F above average in the southwest. Average highs are around 40-46F this time of year, and average lows are around 20-23F. 

It was also a very dry week, with only a few locations receiving any precipitation at all. These areas included areas south of Rapid City, parts of Harding, Day and Marshall counties, and the far southeastern counties. Precipitation totals for the week in these areas was .01 to .15 inches. 

Soil moisture has dried some over the last two weeks, but there are still some very wet soils in the northeast and some near Minnehaha county. 4” Soil temperatures have dropped and are currently reporting in the 30-38F range statewide.  (Laura Edwards)

(Weather) Forecast Highlights: 

Western SD will see temperatures in the 50s to near 60 today with minimum RH in the 20-30% range while eastern SD will see highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s with minimum RH from 25-45%. Winds will generally be light and out of the west, but the southern Black Hills may get a few gusts in the 10-20 mph range. Clear skies are expected. Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 50s and 60s statewide. Winds will be out of the south over East River but will be out of the west/northwest West River. Strong westerly winds are expected south of I-90, west of the Missouri River. Gusts from 25-35+ mph are possible across the prairies with some potential for gusts from 40-60 mph across the central and southern Black Hills and eastern foothills. Minimum RH will range from 8-15% over southcentral and southwestern SD with RHs from 15-35% elsewhere. A cold front moves through on Tuesday night leading to breezy northwesterly winds on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid-20s north to the mid-30s south. A few flurries or sprinkles are possible as the front passes across the prairies and an inch or two of snow can’t be ruled out over the northern Hills. Minimum RH will be well-above critical thresholds. Thursday will bring highs from the upper 20s east to the upper 40s west. South to southwest winds are expected. Friday through Sunday will bring highs in the 40s and 50s to the state. Northwest winds are likely Friday/Saturday with southerly winds on Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period and minimum RH will stay above critical levels statewide. 

Potential for critical conditions:

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday over southcentral and southwestern SD, including the central and southern Black Hills. This is looking like a big downsloping wind event for the central/southern and eastern Black Hills. Strong winds will extend into the prairies across the southwestern and southcentral SD prairies. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for those areas. (Darren Clabo)

(Fire/Fuels) Conditions in the Black Hills are at or slightly above normal for this time of year.  All vegetation is cured and available to burn.  With the cool evenings and the angle of the sun the burn window is shortened this time of year.  Winds will be the primary driver of any fire growth this week.  The forecasted wind for Tuesday will increase the potential for new starts from powerlines and any potential smoldering campfire left from a deer hunter.  The potential for large fire growth on Tuesday will be elevated if we get a new start. Additional resources may be needed to contain a fire on Tuesday. (Jay Wickham)

Weekly Fire Weather Discussion 15 Nov. 2021

(Climate) Winter weather finally arrived (for a long holiday weekend visit) in South Dakota. Snow and wind affected travel over Veteran’s Day weekend and cold temperatures came along with the wintry weather. Snowfall totals in the northeast on Nov 11-12 were highest around Webster with about five inches. Most other locations in the region reported less than two inches of snow. Some warmer areas had icy conditions as well. The northwest was dry this week. Precipitation totals were about one-tenth to one-half inch moisture in the west central. The northeast and east central regions received about one-half to one inch of moisture for the week.

The week started out very warm, and despite cold temperatures over the weekend, the 7-day temperature was above average. The west was about two to four degrees warmer than the weekly average, and the east was generally one to three degrees above average. 

On Nov 13, high winds came across the state with highest wind gusts reported at Reliance (81 mph). There were a handful of locations reporting gusts in the 70+ mph range at McLaughlin, Trail City, Midland and other areas in the northwest and south-central regions. (Laura Edwards)

 

(Weather)

Forecast Highlights:

There is a lot going on this week. Big temperature range across the state today: highs over western SD will be in the 60s/70s with 30s/40s over eastern SD. The areas with the warmest temps will see RHs drop to near 20%, the cooler areas will have much higher RHs. Winds will be light statewide. Breezy westerly winds will develop over western SD overnight with poor RH recovery. A cold front will then move through the state tomorrow morning leading to strong NW winds throughout the day across the state. Gusts from 30-50+ mph are possible, strongest over NW SD. Temperatures will drop throughout the day as the front passes. Minimum RH will range from 15-25% over western SD and from 25-50% over eastern SD. Breezy NW winds will continue Wednesday with gusts from 30-45 mph statewide. Highs will be in the 30s/40s and minimum RH will range from 25-50%. High pressure then moves across the state on Thursday with light winds and highs in the 30s and 40s. Friday will warm with highs in the 40s and 50s with some 60s possible over the far southwestern part of the state. Minimum RH will range from 30-50% with light winds statewide. Highs this weekend will range from the upper 30s to lower 50s and northwest winds are expected both days. No significant precipitation is in the forecast for this week or even next week.

 

Potential for critical conditions:

Elevated fire weather conditions are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday with western SD being the primary threatened area. Tuesday will see the highest danger with the strongest winds and lowest RHs and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for southwestern SD. (Darren Clabo)

 

(Fire/Fuels) The fuels in the Black Hills area remain relatively unchanged, the grass and timber litter categories are susceptible to ignition and fire spread. The Badger Clark Fire in CSP was wind driven with 3–5-foot flame lengths in the grass and 2-foot flame lengths in the timber litter. The 1000-hour fuels did not consume very well and were easy to mop up. With the reduced daylight (we are losing 2 to 3 minutes of sunlight per day) the burn window is significantly shorter, but as usual at this time of the year fires will spread with the wind. It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday could be days to watch with significant wind gusts and RHs in the 20s. (James Bachelor)

November wildfire potential outlook

The South Dakota Wildfire Potential Outlook for November 2021 has been released. Click on the image to get there!