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Thursday, June 11, 2020

Black Hills precipitation updates

Precipitation across the Black Hills continues to lag behind seasonal averages. We did have a few strong/severe storms move through the area June 3 - 6 and those storms brought locally heavy rain. But the rain was not widespread and it fell hard meaning much of it was "lost" to runoff and was not able to efficiently soak into the soils.

Below are several graphs showing precipitation for different stations across the Black Hills. All graphs show precipitation received from April 1 through June 10 and are compared against their historical average at that location.

Southern Black Hills:



Central Black Hills:



Northern Black Hills:


As you can see, every station is lagging behind seasonal average for this time of the year. Don't forget that April, May, June, and July are our 4 wettest months of the year for this area. Precipitation deficits now set the stage for potential drought conditions down the road. 

What is in the forecast?
In the near-term, we look to remain dry. The Weather Prediction Center is only showing light accumulating precipitation over the western Black Hills over the next 7 days. This rain will likely come Saturday evening/night when a few thunderstorms rumble across the area. 

Good news though: the GEFS ensemble models during the time period from June 20 through June 27 are showing above-average precipitation for western SD. There is hope on the horizon at this point!

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