Weather weather discussion 21 March 2022

 

(Climate) It was another dry week across South Dakota, with drought continuing its grip on the state. Most of the state had no precipitation at all. Some far western areas received about one-tenth of an inch. In the north, from Mobridge to the Minnesota state line, there was one event that brought one-tenth to two-tenths of an inch of moisture, with as much as one-third inch in Roberts county.

Air temperatures were above average for the week. The southwest was about three to six degrees above average. Along the Missouri River, from north to south, was nine to fifteen degrees above average, and the northeast was six to twelve degrees above average.

The warm air temperatures and lack of snow cover has warmed soil temperature as well. As of this writing, the southwest quarter of the state is frost-free. The remaining locations still have frost, but soil temperatures through the profile are just below freezing and could thaw with a continuation of warmer-than-average air temperatures. (Laura Edwards)

 

(Weather) Forecast Highlights:

A dry and windy week is in store. Strong northwest winds (gusts from 30-50 mph) are expected under mostly clear skies today through Wednesday as a high pressure system drops in from Canada. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s each day while minimum RHs drop into the 15-30% range over most of the prairies, higher over the Black Hills and southeastern SD. Temperatures will warm into the 50s and 60s on Thursday while the minimum RH drops into the 15-30% range. Friday will bring highs back down in the 40s/50s with minimum RH from 25-45%. Both Thursday and Friday will remain breezy with northwesterly winds gusting from 25-45 mph, strongest over central and western SD.

There is some uncertainty regarding the forecast for the weekend, but it is looking warmer/drier once again. Highs will likely be back up into the 60s but the details on how far the warmth will spread are not yet clear. Precipitation will be hard to come by this week although a few rain/snow showers are possible over eastern SD later tonight and there is a slight chance of a shower over the Black Hills on Thursday.   

 

Potential for critical conditions:

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected today through Friday with the strong northwesterly winds in the forecast.  Minimum RHs will likely not dip to critical thresholds but they will be close. Any fire that does start will have potential to get large, especially over the prairies of western and central SD. (Darren Clabo)

 

(Fire/Fuels) Once again fuels remain uncovered (and cured) over most of the state, except for the higher elevations of the Black Hills and the far northeastern portion of South Dakota. The drought monitor hasn’t changed since last week. All western South Dakota is in a D1 drought with the northwestern portion of the state in D2. There is still the potential for piles to escape if there is wind present, but I foresee the potential going down day by day. With the warmer temperatures, there are areas that are starting to show the beginning of Spring green up.

 

Talking with the Burn Boss from the Antihorse RX that was conducted on Sunday, March 20th the burn went well. This burn was 15 miles west of Custer. He stated that they used a lot of head fire. The dead and down consumed very well. The grass didn’t burn very well in the morning but once temps came up and RHs came down it burned well. They struggled with the draws, any timber stands with a lot of shading, and north aspects due to moisture. (John Haskvitz)