We are starting to see some hints that Thursday could bring higher fire danger to areas along and south of I-90, west of the Missouri River. Strong warm air advection across the area will push temperatures into the 60s while southwesterly (downsloping) winds from 10-20 mph and gusts to 25 mph bring dry air into the region. Minimum RHs may fall below 25% (graph below).
In addition, west-central and south-central SD have seen little in the way of precipitation over the past 3 weeks and those areas missed out on much of the snowfall this past weekend (graph below). The fine fuels are cured and have been exposed to dry conditions which will make them more susceptible to ignition sources.
Historically during November, southwestern and south-central SD see large fire growth when the RH is less than 30%, winds have southerly component in excess of 15 mph, temperatures are 10+ degrees above average, and it has been 20 or more days since the last wetting rain. As it stands now, we will be meeting all of the criteria on Thursday. Just keep it in mind as we get to Thanksgiving Day.
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