Highlights:
Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible over
southwestern SD tomorrow. A strong cold front will then move through tomorrow
evening.
Discussion:
We are expecting a hot, dry, and breezy day tomorrow across Fall
River, Custer, and Oglala Lakota Counties. Temperatures are expected to reach
the mid-80s, minimum RH will drop into the 13-20% range, and west-southwest
winds from 10-20 mph are likely with gusts to 30 mph possible.
A dry cold front
will then move through the state tomorrow evening. This will bring a period of breezy
northwest winds, gusting to 20-35 mph over southwestern SD. Keep this evening
wind shift in the forefront of your mind if there is an ignition. Cooler and
more humid conditions will prevail on Friday with the breezy northwest winds continuing
through midday. Showers are expected Friday night and Saturday.
Fuel conditions are not yet critical but the Cottonwood
Creek fire last week (9/17) did grow to 57.54 acres showing that there is some
potential for fire growth in that area of the state. Quoting Jay Wickham from Monday’s
Weekly Weather Update, “There are some areas in the southern Black Hills where
the grass has cured but most of the herbaceous vegetation will probably remain
green until we receive some hard frost.
Wind will be the driving factor for any fire to be able to spread.” The neighboring
counties in WY are under a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday but no Fire Weather
Watches or Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the NWS for areas of SD as of
yet.
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