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Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Recent conditions across SD

In terms of temperature and precipitation, it's been an odd start to the spring. We've seen some ample precipitation across some areas of the state while other areas remain remarkably dry. The figure below is accumulated precipitation since April 1. 


Northeastern SD and the Black Hills really have been the primary benefactors of the recent precipitation. But when looking at departures from average during the same timeframe, the picture isn't quite as rosy. 

Let's stretch it back to the start of the year over western SD. The next three figures represent year-to-date precipitation in Buffalo, Rapid City, and Custer. Custer had been doing pretty good precipitation wise up through the middle of April, but they are starting to see the effects of the recent dryness over the past few weeks. 


Buffalo is pretty much bone dry. They did get some beneficial rainfall last week but definitely not enough to break the D3 Extreme Drought situation that they currently are in. It was probably enough to green things up a bit but that is about all. 

My concern is starting to become laser-focused on the temperatures forecasts for the next 1 to 2 months. We are running deficits in precipitation but if we get some serious heat in June to early July, that will push us over the edge and dramatically increase wildfire potential across the region. We don't have the moisture in the soils right now and if we increase the evaporative demand with warmer temperatures, it will tap out the moisture completely--bad news for wildfires and agriculture across the state. If we do get some heat, we'll likely see much expansion in the USDM. The forecasts for temperature in June and July (top and bottom, respectively) from the National Multi-Model Ensembles are below. 


That is a forecast that does not bring much hope to the region. Oh and by the way, the same models are showing drier than average conditions for the same time period. 


My current thinking hasn't changed much from my outlooks: I fully expect us to have a busy fire season in SD. 




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