We have an interesting situation across western and southern SD with respect to fuels and fuel greenness. Much of the state has been getting precipitation recently but there have been a few holes in the spatial coverage. Where these holes exist, the fuels are much drier and are currently receptive to ignition and fire spread. The South Dakota Grassland Fire Danger Map is not currently “seeing” these pockets of much drier fuels and is likely underreporting the actual fire danger.
Below is a an image of the past 7-day precipitation totals. Look at where precipitation has and has not fallen to make a better assessment of where the fire danger may be enhanced.
Interestingly, the area to the ESE of Rapid City has been notably dry and this is where the 90-acre Box Elder Creek wildfire occurred (photos below from Logan Scott, SDWF). You’ll notice a lack of green in the unburned herbaceous fuels and this is an area that hasn’t seen notable precipitation in at least 7-10 days.
The regional ERC chart is also attached showing ERCs moving above the 70th percentile over many areas in the state.
I’ve also gotten word from Brad Christensen, the EM Director for Gregory County, that conditions there are drying down rapidly and the Grassland Fire Danger maps do not appear to be reflective of observed conditions.
In short, make your assessments of fire danger locally with your own observed fuels conditions. There are most definitely places that could see rapid growth of wildfires.
Hot temperatures are expected both today and tomorrow with very low RHs over southwestern SD. Luckily the wind shouldn’t be too strong during this same period. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the state Friday afternoon and evening with much cooler temperatures expected this weekend.
No comments:
Post a Comment