Fire potential increasing over west-central SD

 The wildfire potential is dramatically increasing over west-central SD, specifically Haakon County.

• Key historical climate factors for large fires across this area in August. 
• Short-term drought 
• 30-day precipitation less than 1 inch
• Above average temperatures 
• Key historical weather factors that promote large fire growth in August
• Frontal passages (stronger winds plus wind shift)
• 2 or more weeks since last wetting rain
• Temperatures exceeding 90 degrees
• Minimum RHs from 15-25% (not necessarily Red Flag Warning criteria)
• Current weather/climate facts from the area
• Philip, SD (Haakon County) hasn’t seen a wetting rain in 40 days
• 30-day precipitation is only 0.16 inch
• Kirley, SD (Haakon County) precipitation since July 1 is only 0.34 inch
• Milesville, SD (Haakon County) precipitation since July 1 is only 0.27 inch
• Cottonwood, SD (Jackson County) precipitation since July 1 is only 0.65 inch

Continued very warm temperatures are expected through the weekend. It looks like a cold front will cross the area in the Sunday/Monday (August 12-13) timeframe which could bring stronger winds to the area.

I consider Haakon, Jones, Stanley, and southern Ziebach Counties to have the highest wildfire potential of any area in the state. Critical conditions are possible when the key weather factors (listed above) occur.