Weekly Fire Weather Discussion 15 Nov. 2021

(Climate) Winter weather finally arrived (for a long holiday weekend visit) in South Dakota. Snow and wind affected travel over Veteran’s Day weekend and cold temperatures came along with the wintry weather. Snowfall totals in the northeast on Nov 11-12 were highest around Webster with about five inches. Most other locations in the region reported less than two inches of snow. Some warmer areas had icy conditions as well. The northwest was dry this week. Precipitation totals were about one-tenth to one-half inch moisture in the west central. The northeast and east central regions received about one-half to one inch of moisture for the week.

The week started out very warm, and despite cold temperatures over the weekend, the 7-day temperature was above average. The west was about two to four degrees warmer than the weekly average, and the east was generally one to three degrees above average. 

On Nov 13, high winds came across the state with highest wind gusts reported at Reliance (81 mph). There were a handful of locations reporting gusts in the 70+ mph range at McLaughlin, Trail City, Midland and other areas in the northwest and south-central regions. (Laura Edwards)

 

(Weather)

Forecast Highlights:

There is a lot going on this week. Big temperature range across the state today: highs over western SD will be in the 60s/70s with 30s/40s over eastern SD. The areas with the warmest temps will see RHs drop to near 20%, the cooler areas will have much higher RHs. Winds will be light statewide. Breezy westerly winds will develop over western SD overnight with poor RH recovery. A cold front will then move through the state tomorrow morning leading to strong NW winds throughout the day across the state. Gusts from 30-50+ mph are possible, strongest over NW SD. Temperatures will drop throughout the day as the front passes. Minimum RH will range from 15-25% over western SD and from 25-50% over eastern SD. Breezy NW winds will continue Wednesday with gusts from 30-45 mph statewide. Highs will be in the 30s/40s and minimum RH will range from 25-50%. High pressure then moves across the state on Thursday with light winds and highs in the 30s and 40s. Friday will warm with highs in the 40s and 50s with some 60s possible over the far southwestern part of the state. Minimum RH will range from 30-50% with light winds statewide. Highs this weekend will range from the upper 30s to lower 50s and northwest winds are expected both days. No significant precipitation is in the forecast for this week or even next week.

 

Potential for critical conditions:

Elevated fire weather conditions are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday with western SD being the primary threatened area. Tuesday will see the highest danger with the strongest winds and lowest RHs and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for southwestern SD. (Darren Clabo)

 

(Fire/Fuels) The fuels in the Black Hills area remain relatively unchanged, the grass and timber litter categories are susceptible to ignition and fire spread. The Badger Clark Fire in CSP was wind driven with 3–5-foot flame lengths in the grass and 2-foot flame lengths in the timber litter. The 1000-hour fuels did not consume very well and were easy to mop up. With the reduced daylight (we are losing 2 to 3 minutes of sunlight per day) the burn window is significantly shorter, but as usual at this time of the year fires will spread with the wind. It looks like Tuesday and Wednesday could be days to watch with significant wind gusts and RHs in the 20s. (James Bachelor)