(Climate) The last week in South Dakota was warmer than usual, ranging from near average in the northeast to six to eight degrees F above average in the southwest. Average highs are around 40-46F this time of year, and average lows are around 20-23F.
It was also a very dry week, with only a few locations receiving any precipitation at all. These areas included areas south of Rapid City, parts of Harding, Day and Marshall counties, and the far southeastern counties. Precipitation totals for the week in these areas was .01 to .15 inches.
Soil moisture has dried some over the last two weeks, but there are still some very wet soils in the northeast and some near Minnehaha county. 4” Soil temperatures have dropped and are currently reporting in the 30-38F range statewide. (Laura Edwards)
(Weather) Forecast Highlights:
Western SD will see temperatures in the 50s to near 60 today with minimum RH in the 20-30% range while eastern SD will see highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s with minimum RH from 25-45%. Winds will generally be light and out of the west, but the southern Black Hills may get a few gusts in the 10-20 mph range. Clear skies are expected. Temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 50s and 60s statewide. Winds will be out of the south over East River but will be out of the west/northwest West River. Strong westerly winds are expected south of I-90, west of the Missouri River. Gusts from 25-35+ mph are possible across the prairies with some potential for gusts from 40-60 mph across the central and southern Black Hills and eastern foothills. Minimum RH will range from 8-15% over southcentral and southwestern SD with RHs from 15-35% elsewhere. A cold front moves through on Tuesday night leading to breezy northwesterly winds on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid-20s north to the mid-30s south. A few flurries or sprinkles are possible as the front passes across the prairies and an inch or two of snow can’t be ruled out over the northern Hills. Minimum RH will be well-above critical thresholds. Thursday will bring highs from the upper 20s east to the upper 40s west. South to southwest winds are expected. Friday through Sunday will bring highs in the 40s and 50s to the state. Northwest winds are likely Friday/Saturday with southerly winds on Sunday. No precipitation is expected through the period and minimum RH will stay above critical levels statewide.
Potential for critical conditions:
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday over southcentral and southwestern SD, including the central and southern Black Hills. This is looking like a big downsloping wind event for the central/southern and eastern Black Hills. Strong winds will extend into the prairies across the southwestern and southcentral SD prairies. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for those areas. (Darren Clabo)
(Fire/Fuels) Conditions in the Black Hills are at or slightly above normal for this time of year. All vegetation is cured and available to burn. With the cool evenings and the angle of the sun the burn window is shortened this time of year. Winds will be the primary driver of any fire growth this week. The forecasted wind for Tuesday will increase the potential for new starts from powerlines and any potential smoldering campfire left from a deer hunter. The potential for large fire growth on Tuesday will be elevated if we get a new start. Additional resources may be needed to contain a fire on Tuesday. (Jay Wickham)
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