Weekly fire weather discussion 29 Nov. 2021

 

(Climate) 

The Thanksgiving week was quiet with warm and dry conditions. In the west, temperatures were four to ten degrees above the weekly average. In the east, temperatures were near average in the northeast and east central, and up to six degrees above average elsewhere. 

Measurable precipitation was limited to the northern Black Hills, with just one-tenth of an inch or so. Some light sprinkles wetted the ground in the northeast on the evening of Nov 28. The ground remains snow-free across South Dakota as we end the month of November. (Laura Edwards)

(Weather) 

Forecast Highlights: 

A warm week is in store. High temperatures today will be in the 50s/60s statewide with NW winds from 10-20 mph. Minimum RH will range from 25-45%, driest over the southern third of the state. Winds will turn out of the south to southwest tomorrow with speeds generally from 10-20 mph but a few gusts in the 25-35 mph range are possible over the northern Black Hills and the northwestern SD prairies. High temperatures and minimum RHs to will be similar to today. A couple of light rain/snow showers are possible over the Black Hills late tonight, but the rest of the state will remain dry. Highs on Wednesday will range from near 50 over eastern SD to near 70 over the western SD prairies. Winds will be out of the west statewide with gusts from 25-40 mph possible over western SD. Minimum RH will range from 20-30% West River and from 25-50% East River. Near-record temperatures are expected over West River on Thursday as highs climb into the 60s and 70s. Eastern SD will see highs from 45-60 F. Winds are expected to be light and variable while the minimum RH ranges from 18-28% over western SD and from 25-50% over eastern SD. Northerly winds are expected on Friday with high temperatures back into the 40s and 50s. Minimum RH will be above 30% statewide. Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the 30s/40s on Saturday and 20s/30s on Sunday. Light southeasterly winds are expected Saturday with breezy northwesterly winds on Sunday. A few snow showers are possible over the northern Black Hills and northern SD prairies overnight Saturday night. 

Potential for critical conditions:

I doubt we’ll see Red Flag conditions this week as the RH will likely not quite drop to critical levels. Regardless, it will be a warm and dry week with some breezy winds, strongest on Wednesday. Look fire elevated fire danger through the week. (Darren Clabo)

(Fire/Fuels) 

This week looks very similar to last week.  A majority of the state is either abnormally dry or in moderate drought.  The warm weather and lack of precipitation will impact the thousand hour fuels as we move through winter.  The long term impact won’t be known until next spring but we need to monitor these fuel moistures as we move through winter.  The warm temperatures throughout the first part of the week will keep the potential for new starts probable.  With the shortened burn window most fires should be contained during the first burn period. (Jay Wickham)